This is really hard.

Of course, I don't need to tell you that. You've probably noticed. Heck, you probably have it harder than me, I certainly know lots of people do. But that doesn't mean it's any easier for me.

Personally, the hardest thing has been mental. I mean, avoiding the riotings and getting my stuff stolen and having to scavenge and barter for food hasn't been a walk in the park, but the really hard thing, the thing that keeps me up at night, the thing that makes it difficult to get in the morning is all mental. It's the idea that this might be the end. The end of everything I've ever based my life around. I'm trying to not believe that everythings just going to collapse but some days it's hard.

It's the idea that everything I based my life around will be gone that gets to me. I went to high school, I went to college and then suddenly - bam. Everything that I worked for becomes meaningless. And I've been thrust into a new world where all of the old promises might not be worth anything.

It's the feeling that the world is sliding into chaos and there's nothing you can do about it. With Dallas burning and Texas is flooding and there's rioting everywhere and just the general breakdown of law and order what can I do? Is there anything I can do to prevent the end of everything I hold dear?

And I know - we need to work towards something, and the importance of optimisim and working together and all that. It's just... Optimism takes work. And it's hard.



I've finally gathered up enough money to go back to Boston. Not perminantly, just for maybe a few months. Maybe things will calm down by then? Maybe not...

This posting is a direct response to the Five Different Worlds posting on the WWO, and more generally to the apocalyptic, survivalist viewpoints I can't help but noticing around here.

Here's the thing - This thing is bad, but it's not the end of the world. Things seem like there careening towards destruction right now, but that's just because we're still in the "shock" portion of the "oil shock." Some points I'd like to make:

1. We're going to run out of oil. What we're experiencing is Peak Oil, with emphasize on Peak. It means that we've used half the oil available. Half. Now, every barrel of oil we get out of the ground is going to be more expensive than the one before that and with increasing demand we're probably going to burn through it pretty quickly, but there is still plenty of oil physically in the ground. And talk of demand brings me the second point:

2. Demand for oil will drop. Because it's so expensive. Honestly, the fact that oil costs $4.62 has less to do with the amount of oil available than the fact that every almost every single American needs a couple of gallons of it every day. But as people are discovering, that's quickly becoming an unaffordable expense. As I said above, people haven't change yet because we're all still in the shock. But given time, people will change. They'll start biking, or walking, or taking public transportation. They'll move out of communities were driving is required and into places were they're close to their work. This will take time but we're already seeing it. Every time a person decides to stop driving to work, the price of oil goes down a tiny amount.

1 + 2 = We (and by we I mean everybody as a civilization) can keep making plastics and fertilizers and transporting stuff from one place to another for a while now. Oil's never going to be as cheap and plentiful as it used to be but once America's car culture dies off, the price of oil will stabilize to something that means we can keep having our lives until bioplastics and alternative energy can pick up the slack. And they will pick up the slack because they'll have to and because whoever does will stand to be make gobs and gobs of money.

As an aside, I have to say that I totally support the movement by the Agricultural Industry to get preferential access to fuel. Honestly, getting the food grown and transported to your local store is just simply more important than letting civilians have it. It's not nice but eventually we're going to have start prioritizing.

3. With all this talking about a World Without Oil, it's worth thinking about the World Before Oil. There was a time when we didn't drive cars and didn't use oil (at least not at the extent we do now). And we still had nice things like cities and international/cross country travel and science and all that. Our food was transported by trains and cross-atlantic travel was done by boats. It's not like you need oil to have civilization, or even a civilization with many of the things that you and I would point to as important. We've done it before and we can do it again. Also, they had zeppelins back then which were really cool, even if they were never that effective.

Of course, all of that depended on rail lines and fleets of shipping boats and trolley systems which have fallen into disrepair. They'll need to be rebuilt which will take time. More on this in the end.

4. This is more a comment of survivalism than on our current situation, but it's worth stating: any plan for long term survival which doesn't involve cities is just frankly stupid. A lot of people seem to reacting to this with a strong cry to head for the hills. Go out into the countryside, make your own farm, grow your own food. And while we certainly need people to do that, the fact remains that the majority of people are still going to live in cities. Cities are vital producers of innovation and if we're going to save our civilization we're certainly going to need innovation. And cities are better for the environmental than rural areas - the per capita environmental footprint for cities dwellers is smaller than rural dwellers almost everywhere, for a thousand reasons ranging from the fact that city dwellers drive less since everything's closer together to that city dwellers need less heating because their waste heat heats their neighbors.

Suburbs, on the other hand, can feel free to shrivel up and die. They're a product of cars and therefore oils and their days are numbered. Good riddance. I never liked them anyway.

So, in conclusion, everything's going to work out fine. Eventually. Given time. In a few years. And there lies the potential for people to help things, in two ways that I see:

1. Help speed the process: The world's going to see some radical social changes driven by economic pressures over the next few years. These changes can happen quickly or slowly, smoothly or kicking and screaming the whole way. The faster people give up their cars or the faster people start moving out of the suburbs, the better this whole things going to be.

2. Prevent things from getting too bad: There going to be a lot of chaos connecting to all this. Rioting, theft, hoarding, people holing themselves up in the mountains with guns, that sort of thing. If it gets too bad, we may never pull out of this crisis simply because things aren't stable enough. How are we going to keep everything from exploding? I don't know. Do you know?

Man, that ended up long. Any comments, questions, strong disagreements? Please send them, I desire them.

You know what pisses me off? Protesters, that's what. All complaining about high oil prices and hassling government officials and gas stations. Now protesting oil companies, that's one thing. We've get to have a solid answer given for why all our delivery contracts suddenly dried up and somebodies gotta answer for it. So that I can get behind. But most of these people are missing the point - there just isn't any oil. And complaining to your government or bothering innocent gas station attendents (I was one of those for a short period and I can say that their job sucks enough without people getting on their case for something they have no control about) isn't gonna magically make gas go back to two dollars a gallon. There's just not enough oil to go around. So the prices have gone up. Get over it.

A lot of people don't seem to realize that this is how it is. And it's not going to change, not for a while. All the complaining in the world won't make the good times come back. Now is the time to suck it up, and either get used to paying a ton of money for oil or change your lifestyle. That's just the way things are.

Ok, that's good to get out there.

Two totally unrelated things:

1. The Pentagon and the End of Oil - Too little, too late guys.

2. Does anybody have any idea what, exactly, happened to the oil supply? I mean, I know all about peak oil and rising demand from China and how much oil we're using but it shouldn't have happened this fast or right now. There's been talk of broken supply chains and renegotiated delivery contracts but what exactly triggered all of this? Does anybody know? Anybody? Nico?

Been thinking... I'm still not sure if I believe that we're running out of oil, but let's assume for a moment that we are. I've been planning to go back to Boston after finals, to go see my sister's graduation and then return here for the summer. And in all likelyhood I'll still be able to do that.

But... If we hit an oil shock, it'll likely be the last time I can do. Flights will simply become too expensive. I'll be stuck in Minnesota for the foreseeable future. Maybe I'll be able to visit my family once or twice a year. Maybe at Christmas. Maybe. Worse case scenario, I'm stuck in Minnesota, year in, year out, until I decide to move out for good. Depressing...

I need to buy a bike before the demand goes up too much.

Update: Just though I'd add into here about the question on WWO site: How will $4 oil affect your finances?

Near as I can tell, it won't. Not for now anyway. I mean, I don't drive, which is the most direct connection to the global oil supply. I mostly walk and bike everywhere and I actually enjoy taking public transportation*. Heating won't be a problem at least until winter sets in. Electricity costs will probably be the biggest issue - I'm pretty sure I'm paying utilities on the house I'm renting this summer. Maybe. That in turn makes me wonder where my power is coming from - is it oil powered, hydroelectric, wind? I dunno...

Wasn't it easier when we didn't have to think about these kind things?

*I wonder if higher oil prices will effect public transport costs. I mean, the cost of running a bus will go up, but as the cost of driving goes up more people will take public transportation. So I could see it going up, staying the same, or even becoming cheaper as political pressure exists for making public transit cheaper and better.

Two articles on the politic forces that might cause an oil distruption:

Five Geopolitical Feedback-Loops in Peak Oil - I find #3 particularly interesting: with not enough oil to go around, governments are making sure that their supply is locked into flowing into their country and not to others. What if a government decided to go farther than that, and actively seeks to deny other countries their oil?

and

Mend's Open Source War - it basically speaks for itself. The rest of his blog is worth checking out too.

1 day to go. I'm still studying french though.

I've been checking out worldwithoutoil.org and there's bad news and good news.

Bad News: If these people are right, some sort a giant crisis is going to hit in two days and we'll be without oil, likely plunging large portions of the nation into chaos and possibly destroying global civilization.

Good News: If these people are right, I probably won't have to take my finals.

So it's a mixed bag. :)